[Ni-Fe] industry calls for nickel from the LME to establish direct supply of raw materials to meet pricing system
Macquarie Bank research suggests that New Caledonia government has issued export permits for a local manufacturer SMSP. export 2 million tons of limonite and 100 million tons of soil rot mine, which permits export to the three Chinese companies. Existing permit export one million tons to two Chinese companies, the last time late payment.
Health nickel iron is a secondary nickel, nickel is the primary alternatives, China in the past two years has been used to solve the problem of shortage of nickel. China's small furnaces and furnace operators have started from Indonesia, NewCaledonia Philippines and the import of low-grade nickel ore to produce low-grade iron Health nickel products, Nickel 1.5-8% the use of small furnaces, 10-25% using EAF (using New Caledonia in the higher grade nickel ore).
Assumption that the grade of nickel 2%,30% moisture content of 85%, the recovery rate This is equivalent to the output of iron nickel Health Lane will be 48,000 tons of nickel. NewCaledonia ore than Indonesia and the Philippines, a higher grade of stone, and may be used for the production of higher grade and quality of products (up to 15% nickel content). Such materials can be used in the production of the 300 stainless steel products.
We previously assumed only 500,000 tons (6,000 tons of nickel available) from NewCaledonia mine, This year, China's Health nickel-iron nickel production is expected to 8-8.5 million tons. This proved to be wrong, we understand that the 1-4 month period, NewCaledonia the actual exports had reached 675,000 tons.
PTAnekaTanmbang Indonesian producers recently announced that it had signed a contract, This year exports 2.05 million tons of 1.5% nickel containing soil rot ore to China last year is actually zero. China Special Steel plans to export from Indonesia to three million tons of 4587, the first year of 100 million tons, Zhejiang Huanguag this year and has plans to start mining and exports from Indonesia.
In the Philippines, NickelAsia Rumor has it that in 2007, exports will double. at least 500 million tons, and industry Berong nickel project in 2007 exports of 1.5 million tons, 2008 export 2 million tons last year, which is zero. These can easily promote the development of China's iron nickel output this year to 100,000 tons, in 2006 about 2.5 million tons. These developments, coupled with the global stainless steel market worries about an increase has led to the nickel market seems to have some emotion. This, however, has not clearly reflected in LME nickel prices, remain strong, reflecting the continuity of nickel shortage.
Continued strong nickel China is the main reason why this year's stainless steel production and nickel demand show significant strength, This has been offset by declines in other areas. China's stainless steel production appears to be to double the level of last year operation, Despite the efforts of the Chinese factories are switching to low-nickel content of products, but it is enough to alleviate the current tension.
Short time, Norilsk Nickel City Dudinka the floods will reduce Russian primary nickel exports to Europe. This may be sufficient to enable the next few months to maintain market tightness. We are, however, the second half of 2007 nickel prices will stabilize at the current high price level of tension is increasing.
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